Tariff Fears Lift Volatility – What if 29th August

Today’s Trading Tale: Tariffs Send Nifty Lower

Indian markets fell sharply as new U.S. tariffs took effect[1]. Nifty closed ~24,500 (−0.85%)[2], Sensex ~80,081 (−0.87%)[2] and Bank Nifty ~53,820 (−1.17%)[3]. The selloff was broad: banks and IT (HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Infosys, TCS) led losses, while Titan, L&T and other consumer names held up[4][5]. Only the consumer durables index was green; all other sectors fell ~1%[5], erasing August’s rally.

Chart Signals: Nifty Forecast & Key Levels

Nifty support is near 24,308 and 24,189; resistance around 24,694 and 24,813[6]. Bank Nifty support is ~53,257; resistance ~54,384[7]. Technical indicators turned bearish (RSI ~40, MACD down)[6]. Traders will watch a close above 24,600 to cap losses; a break below 24,300 could trigger further drops[8].

Market Movers: News, Data & Global Cues

Trade headlines dominated. U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports (total 50%), shaking investor confidence[1]. Globally, U.S. stock futures are flat (Dow futures +0.2%)[9] and Asia is cautious. Brent crude fell ~0.7% to $67.6 amid weak demand[10]. Dollar/rupee was steady ~87.55. Key domestic triggers tomorrow are Reliance’s AGM and India’s Q1 GDP data[11], which could move heavyweights.

Trader Sentiment & Flows

Image: Traders monitor screens during a volatile session. Investor mood is wary. Retail traders may look for bounces, but yesterday’s drop shook many. Institutional flows show FIIs were big sellers (net ~–₹3,856cr) and DIIs large buyers (+₹6,920cr)[12]. Reuters notes FPIs dumped ~$2.66 bn of Indian equities in August (highest since Feb) on tariff fears[13]. Market-makers are cautious (wider spreads) and speculators are trimming leveraged positions as volatility spikes. Overall, liquidity is thin, setting the stage for intra-day swings.

Scenario Planning: Bull vs. Bear vs. Neutral
  • Bullish (25%): Tariff jitters ease and data surprises on the upside. Nifty reclaims 24,600–24,700 and tests ~24,800. Heavyweights like Reliance and FMCG names lift a relief rally. Why it might fail: Tariff concerns and a firm Fed/dollar could keep a lid on gains.
  • Bearish (50%): Selling resumes below 24,300, targeting ~24,000. Sustained FII outflows and weak global cues drive this. Bank Nifty could test ~52,500. Why it might fail: The market is deeply oversold; short-covering or intervention (DIIs) could arrest the fall.
  • Neutral (25%): Nifty trades in a 24,300–24,600 range as bulls and bears pause. Why it might fail: Given high volatility, the range may break quickly once a clear trigger arrives.

Balancing factors, the bias is cautious. For example, a hoped-for rebound could be snuffed by renewed global stress, while further declines could be blunted by technical bounces or intervention.

Stocks in Focus
  • HDFC Bank (~₹964): Support ~₹960; break below drags BankNifty lower. Resistance ~₹980.
  • ICICI Bank (~₹1,402): Support ~₹1,380; above this could cushion the index. Resistance ~₹1,430.
  • Reliance Industries (~₹1,376): A heavyweight; support ~₹1,360; clearing ₹1,390+ would spark bulls.
  • TCS (~₹3,108): Support ~₹3,100; resistance ~₹3,150[14]. Tech weakness contributed to the selloff.
  • Axis Bank/SBI: Axis ~₹1,049/₹1,030; SBI ~₹810/₹800[15]. These banks will echo the financial trend.

Each ties to our scenarios: e.g. Reliance above ₹1,390 boosts the bull case; HDFC Bank under ₹960 reinforces the bear case.

Trading Gameplan & Reassurance

Prepare for a volatile open. Monitor global indices, commodities and USD/INR pre-market. Key triggers: a decisive move above 24,650 (for longs) or below 24,300 (for shorts) with volume. Use tight stops and manage risk. Stay flexible – even downtrends have sharp relief rallies when oversold. “The market will always create opportunities tomorrow — no need to stay up in suspense.” Keep alert; tomorrow brings new chances[8][12].

Sources: Market data and analysis from NSE, BSE and financial news outlets[2][5][1]. (For educational purposes; not investment advice.)

Key references

[1] [13] Indian stock benchmarks extend losses on US tariff blow | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-stock-benchmarks-extend-losses-us-tariff-blow-2025-08-28

[2] [3] [4] [6] [7] [11] [12] Market Outlook for tomorrow 29 August 2025 | Finblage

https://www.finblage.com/market-outlook/market-outlook-for-tomorrow-29-august-2025

[5] [8] [14] [15] Closing Bell: Market takes a tariff tumble; Nifty at 24,500, Sensex down 706 pts | Moneycontrol News

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-sensex-nifty-50-share-price-gift-nifty-latest-updates-28-08-2025-liveblog-13493724.html

[9] Stock Market Highlights: Sensex settles 706 pts lower, Nifty at 24,500 as 50% US tariffs take effect – The Economic Times

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/live-blog/bse-sensex-today-live-nifty-stock-market-updates-28-august-2025/liveblog/123553920.cms?from=mdr

[10] Oil ticks lower as end of driving season looms, Druzhba restarts | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-ticks-lower-end-driving-season-looms-druzhba-restarts-2025-08-28

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