Market Recap: Nifty & Bank Nifty (Aug 29, 2025)
Markets succumbed to broad selling. Nifty fell 74 pts (–0.3%) to 24,426.85 and Bank Nifty slid ~0.3% to ~53,656[1][2]. Reliance (–2.2%), Infosys (–2%) and auto names (Tata Motors, M&M) were among the top drags[3][4]. In contrast, defensive FMCG (+0.8%) and private banks (+0.8%) outperformed[5]. The day capped three consecutive down sessions, as U.S. tariff worries and FII selling kept sentiment fragile.
Technical Picture (Sept 1, 2025)
Nifty’s charts are weak: RSI ~39, MACD bearish. Immediate support lies at ~24,400–24,300 (August lows and the 200-day EMA)[6]; a breakdown below ~24,200 points to ~24,000[7]. On the upside, resistance comes in around 24,500–24,600 and then ~24,700[8]. Bank Nifty also reversed at its 200-day EMA (~53,570) forming a gravestone doji[9]. Its support is ~53,500–53,400 (below that ~52,900) and resistance at ~54,400–54,500[10]. In short, both indices trade well below key moving averages, signaling a sell-on-rally mode.
Fundamental & News Drivers
Global cues were mixed. On Friday U.S. markets closed softer (Nasdaq down ~1%, S&P 500 down 0.7%) after Fed-preferred inflation data (PCE) met expectations[11], keeping rate-cut odds high. S&P futures are modestly lower ahead of Monday. In Asia, Hong Kong and Taiwan rallied while Tokyo and Seoul fell, amid renewed trade-tariff worries and uneven China data[12]. Brent crude eased to ~$68 on global demand concerns[13]; gold held near multi-week highs on Fed-cut expectations[14]. Currencies: the rupee hovered around ₹88.2 (slightly weaker) as trade deficits persisted.
Domestic drivers: Reliance Industries’ AGM news grabbed headlines. RIL announced a Jio IPO by H1-2026 and AI tie-ups, but its stock fell ~2% as investors digested the announcements[15]. Auto and telecom stocks tumbled on the U.S. doubling tariffs (50%) on select Indian imports, stoking export-earnings fears. Key domestic data this week include India’s Q1 GDP (released Sept 1 evening) and auto sales figures, both of which could sway market direction. Ongoing geopolitical tensions (e.g. the Israel-Hamas war) add to global uncertainty.
Market Sentiment & Participant Behavior
Retail traders are likely cautious after three straight down days; many are sitting on the sidelines or tightening stops. Domestic funds (DIIs) were net buyers (~₹11,500 Cr) even as foreign funds (FIIs) sold (~₹8,300 Cr) on Friday[16], reflecting domestic support amid global caution. The India VIX (fear index) dipped to ~11.7 (down ~3.5%)[17], implying a relatively calm near-term outlook. Overall sentiment is skittish but not panicky – participants await a clear catalyst (data or news) to swing momentum.
Scenario Planning for Sep 1, 2025
- Bullish (∼30%): Tariff fears ease or global cues improve. Nifty holds ~24,400 and breaks above 24,600–24,700, aiming toward ~24,800–25,000. A strong GDP print or positive trade news would fuel this. But weak global markets or fresh shocks (inflation, geopolitics) could cap the rally.
- Bearish (∼50%): Headwinds (trade news or U.S. weakness) persist. Nifty breaks 24,300 decisively, sliding toward ~24,000–23,900; Bank Nifty under 53,400 could test ~52,900. Even defensive segments may come under pressure. However, oversold conditions and continued DII buying might spark a technical bounce, so declines may not be runaway.
- Neutral (∼20%): Range-bound trade (~24,300–24,600) as traders await GDP and Fed cues. Low volatility (VIX ~11.7) suggests consolidation. Given many upcoming events, this pause may be brief – a decisive break either way is likely once news flow clarifies.
Key Stocks in Focus
- Reliance Industries (RIL): ~₹1,368. Market bellwether and top-10 weight. Support ~₹1,340; key resistance ~₹1,400. A sustained move above ₹1,400 would turbocharge the bulls, while a fall below ~₹1,350 risks a slide into the mid-₹1,300s.
- Infosys: ~₹1,476. IT sector proxy. Support ~₹1,450; breaking above ₹1,500 would signal renewed tech strength.
- HDFC Bank: ~₹956. Heavy-weight financial. Support ~₹940 (near its 200-day EMA), resistance ~₹1,000. Its trend heavily influences Bank Nifty’s direction.
- SBI: ~₹806 (Kotak ~₹2,000). Support ~₹780 (Kotak ~₹1,950); resistance ~₹850 (Kotak ~₹2,050). These banks underlie the financial index.
Each of these names links to our scenarios: e.g. a breakthrough in Reliance/Infosys would favor the bull case, while their weakness would amplify the bearish view.
Action Plan & Reassurance
Pre-open: Check SGX Nifty and major U.S. futures/markets overnight. Review commodity moves (oil, gold) and USD/INR. Note key technical levels (Nifty ~24,300/24,600; Bank Nifty 53,400/54,400) and any corporate/budget news. Ensure stop-losses and positions are adjusted for a potential gap.
Intraday: Watch the opening range: its breakout or reversal will set Monday’s tone. Key triggers include a breach of Fri’s high/low or pivots, spikes in India VIX, and heavy trading volume in top stocks (e.g. Reliance, Infosys, banks). Use VWAP or pivot points to time entries and exits. If markets break resistance, look for momentum plays; if support breaks, favor short trades.
Mindset: Volatility and news will swing markets. Keep a plan and risk-control. Remember: the market always creates new opportunities. There’s no need to stay in suspense — tomorrow is a fresh session to trade smart.
Sources: Market data and analysis are based on NSE closes, Moneycontrol technical reports[6][7], news headlines (RIL AGM, US tariffs)[3][15], and FII/DII flow data[16]. All cited information comes from the referenced sources.
References
[1] [4] [5] [12] [14] [15] Indian Market Overview -29 Aug 2025 | Lemonn Blog
[2] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [17] Technical View: Bears dominate for third session; August swing low at risk if rising trendline breaks; stay with sell-on-rally strategy
[3] Stock Market Highlights: Sensex settles 271 pts lower, Nifty below 24,450 as RIL, tariff worries weigh on markets – The Economic Times
[11] Stocks decline, US Treasury yields rise; US inflation data mostly in line | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-5-2025-08-29
[13] Oil prices fall on expected weaker demand, but set for weekly gain | Reuters
[16] FII & DII Trading Activity in Cash, Futures and Options, MF SEBI & FII SEBI Daily Trends Stocks Data
https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/index.php
Quick scenario update for tomorrow
Bullish (40%) – GDP optimism + calm global handover; Nifty attempts higher toward resistance; banks/consumption lead. (Risk: tariff noise flares up.) 
Bearish (35%) – Tariff/legal uncertainty and soft risk appetite; exporters, cyclicals, and private banks stay heavy; INR wobbly. 
Neutral (25%) – Markets mark time inside ranges, awaiting tariff clarity; options decay dominates.
Bottom line
Growth is a cushion, but tariff headlines keep the market on a short leash. Prepare two simple plans: a growth-led bounce plan if global cues are calm and INR steadies, and a defensive plan if tariff/legal uncertainty worsens. Let levels and volume confirm direction; don’t front-run the news.