What happened? a quick cap below
Nifty 50 fell on Aug 22, closing at 24,870.10 (–213.65 pts, –0.85%). Meanwhile, Bank Nifty fell about 1.1% to 55,149. The indices opened weak and sold off into the close, carving a long bearish candle on daily charts .
Furthermore, heavyweights led the decline – HDFC Bank (–1.3%), ICICI Bank (–0.7%) and Reliance (–1.1%) all dragged Nifty. Among Nifty stocks, M&M (+0.8%) and Maruti (+0.4%) bucked the trend, while UltraTech, Hero Moto, and Grasim saw sharp losses.
If we look at sector breadth, which turned negative, we see that Media and Pharma were the only outperformers (up ~0.5–1%), while Metals, PSU Banks, Auto, and FMCG led declines. Overall, the market gave up most of last week’s rally gains amid rising trade-war jitters and Powell’s pending Jackson Hole speech. And the outcome looks like “Powell’s speech reassured markets that the Fed will remain flexible. At the same time, investors must recognize that rate cuts are not guaranteed and may be delayed if inflation stays sticky. Therefore, while the short-term market mood is bullish, the medium-term still demands caution.”
Technical Levels for Monday
Nifty 50 (24,870):
- Nifty has formed an evening-star reversal pattern on Friday.
- Although support seems to be holding between 24,800 and 24,850, a decisive break below 24,650 — which aligns with the prior swing low — could therefore signal a deeper downside move.
- Resistance: 25,100–25,150 (last week’s highs).
- Meanwhile, RSI is rolling over to neutral, warning of more downside .
- In addition, heavy volumes confirm supply dominance.
Bank Nifty (55,149):
- Moreover, Bank Nifty closed below both the 20- and 50-day moving averages, and therefore it signals potential weakness unless strong buying emerges soon.
- Furthermore, support seems to be between 55,000 and 54,900; however, if this zone breaks decisively, the next downside targets could therefore extend toward 54,500–54,100.
- Meanwhile, Bank Nifty faces resistance between 55,800 and 55,900 levels; however, if it fails to cross this zone convincingly, the index could therefore remain capped in the short term.
- Therefore, falling RSI reinforces the bearish tone (moneycontrol.com).
Market Sentiment & Positioning
Scenarios for Monday
| View | Targets/Range | Probability | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | Reclaim 25,100 → 25,300/25,400 | 30% | Short covering, dovish Powell |
| Bearish | Slip below 24,800 → 24,650/24,500 | 50% | Hawkish Fed, tariff escalation |
| Neutral | Consolidation 24,800–25,100 | 20% | Mixed global cue |
Action Plan for Traders
- Pre-Open: Track global cues and RBI updates. Key Nifty levels: 24,800 & 25,100.
- Intraday:
- Watch for Bounce at support for low-risk longs.
- Keep an eye on failures at resistance, which may fade rallies, consider hedge with puts.
- Traders should keep position sizes small, as volatility remains elevated.
- Mindset: Wait 30 mins post-open before committing big trades. Trade with stops and avoid FOMO.
💡 Retail Tip: The market may give fresh opportunities on Monday regardless of direction.